Today we are witnessing the unpredictability of the pre-election race, unique in terms of transparency. A mistake or successful moves of either side can lead to a change in electoral preferences even on March 30.
Intrigue will last until the last days of the race. For the time being, the chances of 3 main candidates still remain, but surprises are also possible.
For example, the complete union of Gritsenko and Sadovy, or the transition of the protest electorate of the south-east to Zelensky. It is obvious that the unification of Boiko and Vilkul in the southeast is unlikely today.
Zelensky is today successfully copying the Italian model of comedian Beppe Grillo (the “Five Stars Movement” parity), which won the last elections in Italy. It is also worth noting the fact that politically active voters loyal to the authorities are not afraid to declare their position and willingly participate in polls. But! The depth of reachability on polls is barely 60%. Simply speaking, only every second citizen agrees to participate in the survey. And, most likely, this citizen is dissatisfied with the government. And many of them will vote.
The same applies to undecided respondents (there are about 20%). Among them there are many satisfied with power, but there are also dissatisfied. Thus, we have a significant hidden protest electorate, who is likely to vote for opposition candidates.
Good chances to increase the votes of the opposition in the elections. Zelensky has a demonstrative protest electorate who openly declares his position, so he cannot count on bonuses. There is at least «his» take. This may probably contribute to the release in March of his TV series “Servant of the People”. Zelensky’s main problem is that his young voter can stay at home on March 31st.
As for Yulia Tymoshenko, she has so far reached the limit of her electoral opportunities. For many, Tymoshenko poses the same threat as Telman in the Weimar Republic. That is, the person going to select someone else. This scares some local elites.
In connection with all the above, today it is difficult to predict the winner of the race. Poroshenko is trying to gather around him the entire patriotic electorate and use the power resource, however, Gritsenko & Sadova and Tymoshenko are already working with Koshulinsky in the patriotic niche …